Thailand Projects 40M Visitors in 2026 Amid Tourism Shift

Thailand Projects 40M Visitors in 2026 Amid Tourism Shift

Thailand recorded 32.97 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2025, generating 1.53 trillion baht in visitor spending, according to data compiled by SKHAI from Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) figures. While the 2025 total represents a 7.2% decline from 2024’s 35.5 million arrivals, it remains substantially above pre-pandemic baselines and reflects a compositional shift in visitor demographics.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has set 2026 targets at 39-40 million foreign arrivals and 3.4 trillion baht in total tourism revenue. TAT’s stated strategy emphasises value over volume, targeting travellers who stay 14-21 days and spend 65,000-80,000 baht per trip.

Source Market Composition and Long-Haul Growth

The five largest source markets for Thailand in 2025 were Malaysia (4.52 million visitors), China (4.47 million), India (2.49 million), Russia (1.90 million), and South Korea (1.56 million), according to the SKHAI analysis of TAT data.

Long-haul arrivals—primarily from Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia—reached 10.8 million in 2025, a 10.6% increase over the prior year and an all-time high. Growth was led by the United Kingdom and United States markets. China’s 4.47 million visitors in 2025 remained below the 2019 level of 10.9 million.

SKHAI’s report notes that long-haul visitors typically stay longer and spend more than short-haul arrivals, creating stronger demand for private villa rentals over hotel accommodation.

Phuket and Koh Samui Visitor Volumes

Phuket International Airport handled 19.7 million passengers in 2024, according to airport authority figures cited by SKHAI. The island remains Thailand’s second-largest tourism hub after Bangkok.

Koh Samui recorded 1.13 million passenger arrivals in the first four months of 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase. Of Samui’s international arrivals, 56% originated from European markets including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.

Villa Rental Yield Performance

SKHAI provided rental performance data for properties managed under its STAYLAR platform. Net yields across the portfolio averaged 7.8%, with occupancy rates ranging from 68% to 78% and average daily rates (where disclosed) reaching $285.

Sunrise Garden Phuket in Cherngtalay recorded an 8.4% net yield with 78% occupancy and a $285 average daily rate. Sunrise Palms Phuket in Pasak reported 8.1% net yield and 74% occupancy. Sunrise Valley Phuket, also in Cherngtalay, showed 7.8% net yield and 72% occupancy.

On Koh Samui, Sunrise Residences in Chaweng Noi achieved 7.2% net yield with 68% occupancy, while Coral Cove in Lamai recorded 7.5% net yield and 70% occupancy.

Infrastructure Investment and Supply Constraints

SKHAI’s analysis notes that tourism revenue supports infrastructure development in destination markets. Phuket’s planned second international airport is projected to handle 12.5 million passengers annually, according to government plans cited in the report.

The report highlights geographic supply constraints on both Phuket and Koh Samui, where island boundaries limit the expansion of development into new areas. SKHAI states that available development land on Phuket’s west coast is increasingly scarce, particularly in prime locations.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many tourists visited Thailand in 2025?

Thailand recorded 32.97 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2025, generating 1.53 trillion baht in visitor spending. This represents a 7.2% decline from 2024’s 35.5 million arrivals but reflects a shift toward higher-spending, longer-staying visitors from long-haul markets.

What are Thailand’s tourism targets for 2026?

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has set 2026 targets at 39-40 million foreign arrivals and 3.4 trillion baht in total tourism revenue. TAT’s strategy prioritises travellers staying 14-21 days and spending 65,000-80,000 baht per trip.

Which markets showed the strongest growth in 2025?

Long-haul arrivals from Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia reached 10.8 million in 2025, representing a 10.6% increase and an all-time high. India also showed strong growth at 2.49 million visitors, making it Thailand’s third-largest source market.

What villa rental yields are properties achieving in Phuket?

SKHAI’s STAYLAR-managed properties in Phuket reported net yields between 7.8% and 8.4%, with occupancy rates ranging from 72% to 78%. Sunrise Garden Phuket recorded the highest performance at 8.4% net yield, 78% occupancy, and a $285 average daily rate.

How many passengers does Phuket International Airport handle?

Phuket International Airport handled 19.7 million passengers in 2024. A planned second international airport for Phuket is projected to handle 12.5 million passengers annually, according to government plans cited in the SKHAI report.

Sources

  • SKHAI — Thailand’s Record Tourism 2026: What 40M+ Visitors Mean for Villa Investment Returns — link
  • Tourism Authority of Thailand — 2026 tourism targets and strategy
  • Phuket International Airport — 2024 passenger statistics
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Gaël Ovide-Etienne
Gaël oversees all marketing efforts for Ocean Worldwide. He manages marketing campaigns to connect with prospective buyers, conducts research and market analysis, and leverages AI to enhance all aspects of the business. This approach ensures better and faster results for our buyers and sellers.

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