When condos decline more sharply than low-rise housing in one of Thailand’s most industrialised regions, even as the government lowers fees and relaxes loan rules, the market is sending a signal.
That signal matters beyond the Eastern Economic Corridor. It shows what happens when buyer confidence weakens, employment softens and affordability becomes the deciding factor—dynamics that can shift quickly in resort markets such as Phuket, which also rely on stimulus, external demand and sentiment.
According to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), housing transfers in the EEC fell 4.4% in 2025 to 45,958 units, with total value down 7.4% to 111 billion baht. Condo transfers declined more sharply than low-rise housing, particularly in value, despite government measures including reduced transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% and relaxed loan-to-value rules.
What the figures actually show
In the fourth quarter, transfers totalled 13,090 units worth 30.8 billion baht, down 2.1% in units and 7.8% in value year-on-year. Low-rise housing remained the dominant segment, while condos continued to underperform.
The detail worth watching is not only the decline, but the quarter-on-quarter improvement, which REIC attributes to government stimulus. Yet despite this short-term lift, demand remained subdued. REIC describes buyers as adopting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty.
Rayong was the only EEC province to post growth, with transfers rising 4.8% in units and 3.9% in value, driven by housing demand linked to industrial expansion and employment. Chon Buri and Chachoengsao both declined.
Supply contracted sharply. New land allocation permits in 2025 totalled 118 projects with 9,134 units, down 22.4% in projects and 27.5% in units. Construction activity also fell. Total construction permits dropped 25% for the year to 26,377 units, with condo permits down 35.9%.
Why the condo weakness matters
Condos are more sensitive to buyer confidence than low-rise housing. They are harder to finance, more dependent on loan-to-value flexibility, and less attractive when employment and income stability weaken.
In the EEC, demand from industrial workers has begun to soften. Pairoj Wattanavarodom, managing director of SET-listed Eastern Star Real Estate, said some large petrochemical and construction material companies in Rayong’s industrial estates have started to reduce headcounts and lay off employees.
Demand remains uneven. Map Ta Phut continues to see demand from professional groups including doctors, military personnel and aviation workers, but the broader market is under pressure.
The divergence between low-rise resilience and condo weakness reflects affordability constraints and changing buyer preferences, according to Pairoj. Developers have scaled back launches and focused on lower-priced segments.
What this means for Phuket property
Phuket’s condo market depends on different drivers than the EEC—foreign buyers, tourism-linked rental demand, lifestyle investment and long-stay visitors rather than industrial employment. But the broader pattern is relevant.
When stimulus fails to shift buyer confidence in one region, it suggests that lower fees and relaxed lending may not be enough on their own. Confidence depends on employment, income stability, currency strength for foreign buyers, and clarity about future demand.
Phuket benefits from diversified demand sources. Foreign buyers are less affected by domestic Thai employment trends. Tourism recovery supports rental demand. Infrastructure projects including the light rail and marina expansions improve long-term access and lifestyle appeal.
But Phuket condos are not immune to broader caution. If Thai domestic buyers pull back, developers may reduce launches or shift pricing. If foreign buyer sentiment weakens due to currency, visa uncertainty or competing markets, supply and transaction volumes can adjust quickly.
The EEC data suggests that condo performance depends more on buyer confidence and affordability than on stimulus alone. For Phuket, the implication is that demand quality matters more than volume, and that projects need to align with what buyers can afford and justify, not only with what developers want to build.
What remains uncertain
The REIC report does not specify how long the stimulus measures will remain in place, or whether they will be extended. It also does not provide detail on foreign buyer activity within the EEC, which is primarily a domestic market.
For Phuket, the relevant question is whether similar caution is emerging among Thai domestic buyers, and whether foreign buyer demand remains strong enough to offset any domestic softness. Recent tourism data and foreign ownership trends will provide clearer signals over the coming quarters.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the EEC condo decline mean for Phuket buyers?
It shows that stimulus measures alone may not shift demand when buyer confidence is weak. Phuket depends on different demand drivers, including foreign buyers and tourism, but the pattern suggests that affordability and confidence matter more than policy incentives in a cautious market.
Why did condos decline more than low-rise housing in the EEC?
Condos are more sensitive to loan-to-value rules, employment stability and buyer confidence. When industrial employment softens, as it has in parts of Rayong, condo demand weakens faster than demand for low-rise housing, which appeals to families and professional buyers with more stable income.
Could Phuket condos face similar pressure?
Phuket condos depend more on foreign buyers, tourism-linked rental demand and lifestyle investment than on domestic Thai employment. If foreign buyer confidence weakens or tourism softens, transaction volumes and pricing could adjust, but the drivers are different from the EEC industrial market.
What are developers doing in response?
In the EEC, developers have scaled back launches and focused on lower-priced segments. REIC data shows new land allocation permits fell 27.5% in units, and construction permits dropped 25% for the year, reflecting a cautious approach to supply.
Is the Thai property market in decline?
The EEC market has softened, with transfers down 4.4% in units and 7.4% in value for 2025. However, Rayong posted growth, and quarter-on-quarter improvement suggests stimulus has had some short-term effect. The market is in a consolidation phase, with both developers and buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Sources
- Bangkok Post — EEC market weakens as condos tumble — link
