Bangkok condo prices have climbed back to near pre-pandemic levels, but the story behind the numbers matters more than the headline figure. Developers are not targeting middle-income buyers. They are avoiding new launches in affordable segments entirely, and they are increasingly shifting attention to Phuket.
According to Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, the average selling price of newly launched condo units in Greater Bangkok reached 120,364 baht per square metre in the first half of 2026, up 9.4% from 110,000 baht at the end of 2025. That figure is within reach of the 120,633 baht recorded in 2019, just before the pandemic, and not far below the market peak of 126,373 baht in 2018.
But this is not a straightforward recovery. The rise in average prices reflects a narrowing market, not a broadening one.
Why this cycle is different
In most economic downturns, developers respond to weaker demand by launching more affordable housing. This time, they are not.
Surachet Kongcheep, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, explained that middle- and lower-income buyers are struggling to secure mortgage approval. Banks have tightened lending standards, and the segment that typically absorbs high-volume condo supply is now largely shut out.
As a result, developers are avoiding new launches aimed at this group. That means average prices climb not because the overall market is stronger, but because only higher-priced projects are being introduced.
From 2021 to 2026, average launch prices have risen steadily: 84,500 baht per square metre in 2021, 87,625 baht in 2022, 95,500 baht in 2023, 100,000 baht in 2024, 110,000 baht at the end of 2025, and 120,364 baht in the first half of 2026.
The increase accelerated sharply in the second quarter of 2026, when average prices jumped to 150,420 baht per square metre, up from 90,308 baht in the first quarter. That shift was driven by a concentration of launches along the Sukhumvit skytrain line outside Bangkok’s central business district, with around 90% of new projects targeting higher-priced segments.
The first quarter average was pulled lower by Baan Chao Thai, a 4,150-unit project in the Srinakarin area developed by BTS Group Holdings, with prices starting at 63,000 baht per square metre. Without that large, lower-priced launch, the first quarter figure would have been much higher.
Land costs, construction costs and mortgage constraints
Surachet Kongcheep said that affordable condo launches will become increasingly rare. Land prices continue to rise, especially near mass transit stations. Construction costs remain elevated. And demand from middle- and lower-income buyers is constrained by stricter mortgage approval requirements.
Most new projects are being launched within walking distance of rail stations, where the expansion of Bangkok’s mass transit network has lifted surrounding land values. That pushes up development costs and, in turn, condo prices.
The result is a market where developers are targeting buyers with stronger purchasing power, avoiding segments where financing is difficult and margins are thin.
Developers shift focus to Phuket
The Bangkok condo market slowdown has led developers to look elsewhere. According to Surachet Kongcheep, many are avoiding new launches in Greater Bangkok and shifting focus to Phuket, where project launches remain active.
This matters for Phuket property. Developer interest in the island is not only about tourism demand or foreign buyers. It reflects a strategic retreat from Bangkok’s tightening affordability and mortgage constraints.
Phuket offers different market dynamics: a stronger foreign buyer base, rental-led investment demand, less reliance on local mortgage approval, and ongoing infrastructure improvements that continue to support property values.
Meanwhile, some Bangkok developers are concentrating on clearing completed unsold inventory or disposing of units through bulk sales to improve cash flow. Others have used unsold condominium units to settle construction payments with contractors.
What this means for Phuket property
For Phuket buyers and investors, the shift in developer strategy is worth noting. If Bangkok developers are looking for markets where launches remain viable and financing is less dependent on local mortgage approval, Phuket becomes a more attractive destination for new supply.
That could mean more professionally managed, developer-backed projects entering the Phuket market over the next 12 to 24 months. It could also mean increased competition among developers, which may improve product quality and buyer choice.
The shift also underscores a broader trend: Phuket’s property market is increasingly shaped by factors beyond villa launches and beach views. Policy on foreign buyers, tourism trends, infrastructure investment and capital flows from Bangkok developers all matter.
For buyers comparing Phuket with Bangkok investment, the contrast is clear. Bangkok condo prices are rising, but new supply is narrowing and mortgage access is tightening. Phuket offers a different risk profile, with demand driven more by international buyers, lifestyle investment and rental income rather than local homebuyer financing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Bangkok condo prices rising despite a sluggish economy?
Prices are rising because developers are avoiding affordable launches and concentrating on higher-priced segments near mass transit. The increase reflects a narrowing market, not stronger overall demand. Middle- and lower-income buyers are struggling with mortgage approval, so developers are not launching projects for that segment.
What is pushing developers to focus on Phuket instead of Bangkok?
Bangkok’s condo market faces tighter mortgage approval, rising land and construction costs, and weak affordability in the middle-income segment. Phuket offers a different buyer profile, with stronger foreign demand, rental-led investment and less reliance on local mortgage financing, making new launches more viable.
Does this shift mean more supply is coming to Phuket?
It suggests that developers who would previously have launched projects in Bangkok are now considering Phuket as a more active market. This could lead to increased professionally managed supply over the next 12 to 24 months, though the timing and scale will depend on individual developer strategies and market conditions.
How does this affect Phuket property buyers?
The shift may bring more developer-backed projects to Phuket, increasing buyer choice and competition. It also highlights Phuket’s appeal as a market less dependent on local mortgage approval and more driven by international buyers, lifestyle investment and rental demand.
What remains uncertain about this trend?
The scale and pace of the developer shift to Phuket are not yet clear. It is also uncertain how long Bangkok’s mortgage constraints will persist and whether government policy or economic conditions could change the dynamics in either market.
Sources
- Bangkok Post — Bangkok condo prices near pre-pandemic peak — link
